How We Calculate Safety Scores
Transparent methodology using official Estonian police data. No opinions, just numbers.
Our Safety Score System
Every neighborhood in Tallinn receives a safety score from 0 to 100, where higher scores indicate safer areas. This score is calculated directly from official police crime reports, not from surveys or opinions.
We believe in transparency. Below, we explain exactly how we calculate these scores so you can understand what they mean and make informed decisions.
Data Source
Estonian Police and Border Guard Board
All crime data comes from the official Estonian Police (Politsei- ja Piirivalveamet). This data is released quarterly and includes all reported incidents categorized by type and location.
Calculation Methodology
Crime Categorization
We categorize all reported incidents into three severity tiers:
Tier 1: Severe
Violent crimes, robbery, assault
Weight: 3x
Tier 2: Moderate
Burglary, theft, vandalism
Weight: 2x
Tier 3: Minor
Petty theft, disturbances
Weight: 1x
Per Capita Normalization
Raw crime counts don't tell the full story. A busy city center will naturally have more incidents than a quiet suburb. We normalize all data per 1,000 residents using Statistics Estonia population data.
Rolling Average
To smooth out anomalies (like a single bad month skewing results), we use a 3-year rolling average. This gives you a more accurate picture of long-term safety trends.
Score Calculation
The final score is calculated using this formula:
Score = 100 - (Weighted Crime Rate × Scaling Factor)
Where: Weighted Crime Rate = (Tier1 × 3 + Tier2 × 2 + Tier3 × 1) / Population × 1000
Interpreting Safety Scores
| Score Range | Rating | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| 85-100 | Very Safe | Among the safest in Tallinn. Rare incidents. |
| 70-84 | Safe | Low crime rate. Standard precautions apply. |
| 55-69 | Moderate | Average for Tallinn. Some areas require more awareness. |
| Below 55 | Exercise Caution | Higher than average incidents. Research specific streets. |
Important context: Even Tallinn's lowest-scoring neighborhoods are generally safe by global standards. Estonia is one of the safest countries in Europe. These scores help you compare within Tallinn, not against other cities.
Limitations We Acknowledge
Reporting Bias
Not all crimes are reported. Some neighborhoods may have higher or lower reporting rates.
Perception vs Reality
How safe you feel can differ from statistical safety. We can't capture subjective experience.
Data Lag
Police data is released quarterly, meaning our scores reflect conditions 1-3 months ago.
District Averages
Safety can vary block-by-block. Our district-level scores are averages.
Explore Safety Scores by Neighborhood
See how different Tallinn neighborhoods compare on safety.
Compare Neighborhoods →